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Weather Affects Every Aspect Of The Economy
By Chris Orr, Fri Dec 9th
c. 2004 Chris S. Orr CCM Weather affects every aspect of our lives. It impacts ourpocketbooks, our menus, our schedules and even our health. We are aware of how cold weather drives up the price of naturalgas and propane (just look at your heating bills from thisyear!) and how our insurance costs are adjusted for the amountof storm damage we sustain. Changes in the weather, either realor predicted, will affect the price of everything we buy, frompeas to plywood. Sometimes the effect will be in our favor,sometimes it won't. How much did you pay for vegetables lastwinter? Why are limes -- small and hard as they are -- soexpensive right now? Is the quality of lettuce comparable to itsprice?
Contract prices on the Chicago Board of Trade are very weathersensitive. Weather has such a huge impact on the commoditiesmarket that traders and analysts pay hundreds and even thousandsof dollars a month for commentaries on long-range weatherforecasts. These commentaries make the rounds among traders andanalysts two or three times a week. Based on these commentaries,the price of grain, cattle, beans, and all sorts of agricultureproducts is driven up or down. Traders look for the elusive normal weather. If the summerrainfall forecast for the C Corn Belt of Nebraska, Iowa, andIllinois is for above normal rainfall, futures may rise inanticipation of the crop getting too much moisture, stunting itsgrowth. The same principle applies if the forecast is for toolittle rainfall. If the forecast calls for near normal rainfall,invariably the price of corn will fall in anticipation of a verygood crop and too many bushels of corn on the market in the falland winter. In other words, if the trading price is high, you'llpay more at the grocery store; if it is low because of "normal"weather, you pay less. Are you planning to do a little construction later this summer?Buy plywood before the first tropical storm forms over theAtlantic Ocean. The price of plywood soars as tropical stormsand hurricanes approach the coast of the United States. Peoplein the path of these storms buy up plywood to "batten down
thehatches," creating local shortages. Those shortages are filledby drawing on supplies from the rest of the country, limitingstocks and driving up prices. Accurate weather forecasts help some businesses compete. Theretailer Sears, Roebuck and Co. had its own meteorologists formany years so they could sell items based on the weather. Fansand air conditioners were in stock before a heat wave hit.Umbrellas went on sale when it rained. Subway's corporateheadquarters tracks individual store sales against the weather.It uses a history of weather and store sales along with theforecast to predict store volume. Their stores in southernCalifornia even give discounts on rainy days. Let me pose a question to you…how much do you think the weatheraffects your daily schedule? Now, I don't mean being a minutelate to work because you had to run back in the house and graban umbrella, but how does the weather seriously impact yourplans? Are you flying anywhere this summer? Fog, thunderstorms,freezing rain and heavy snow still halt flights and probablywill for many years. It is just too dangerous to fly in any ofthose conditions. You'd think that with all of our technology wecould fly aircraft into any sort of weather! You can avoid theinconvenience of flight delays by planning around the weather.Fog is most common in late fall and early spring, and usuallylifts to a tolerable level by 10 a.m. Los Angeles, Denver, SaltLake City and San Francisco get a lot of early morning fogduring the winter. Plan to arrive at those destinations duringthe afternoon to avoid flight delays. On the other hand, summer thunderstorms rattle the windowsaround Denver during the late afternoon and evening, whilePhoenix sees windy evening thunderstorms. Arrive by midafternoon to avoid these nuisance storms. If you are headinginto the Midwest, thunderstorms tend to roll into Chicago andSt. Louis after midnight, delaying red-eye flights. Just alittle planning will save you the hassle of finding something todo at the airport while waiting for the next flight, or worseyet, missing a connecting flight and ruining your vacation. Did you know that today's weather will affect the aches andpains you will feel in two or three days? At least that is whatsome physicians believe. I always thought today's weatherbrought me today's aches and pains, but it appears the humanbody has a lag time of several days. It is possible to predictwhen you and I will feel these aches, pains and migraines a dayor two in advance. Think of how wonderful it will be in thefuture when you can call the doctor and the appointment deskwill have an opening available for you because your medicalrecords matched the criteria for today's aches-and-pains index! The use of weather information goes far beyond, "partly cloudywith a 30 percent chance of rain." The price of food and theconvenience of having items stocked at your store, the mini-golfplace open when you'd like to go and the supply of electricityfor your home are all governed by the weather. Your physicalhealth is affected by the weather. Many of the things you willdo this day will be based on the weather - past, present andfuture. About the author:Chris Orr is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist with more than25 years of experience. His private practice includes work as anexpert witness, weather forecasting and forecaster training. Hiscolumn appears in the Rapid City Journal every Sunday. He can becontacted at weather@rapidwx.com or through his Web sitewww.rapidwx.com .
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